Predictive Discovery Limited (PDI.AX) MESA Average Sinks Below FAMA

Predictive Discovery Limited (PDI.AX) are in focus today as the charts are revealing that the Mesa Adaptive Moving Average (MAMA) has trickled below the FAMA, or Fractional Moving Average.  This environment typically indicates that there might be a buying opportunity aligning in technicals.  When there are crossovers between the FAMA and MAMA, the shares are often widely traded.  When the MAMA crosses above the FAMA, it means that the shares are likely to move higher.  Conversely the opposite occurs when the MAMA crosses below the FAMA.  The Mesa Moving Average was first mentioned by John Ehlers in a paper published in a 2001 edition of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine.  The below was excerpted from the publication,

“The MESA Adaptive Moving Average (MAMA) adapts to price movement based on the rate of change of phase as measured by the Hilbert Transform Discriminator (Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine, December 2000). This method features a fast attack average and a slow decay average so that composite average rapidly ratchets behind price changes and holds the average value until the next ratchet occurs.”

Even though the stock market has been cranking along and touching record highs, there are bound to be some rough patches in the near future. Some investors may actually welcome a pullback in order to scoop up some stocks at a relative discount. Investors who are on top of things are most likely ready to spring when the next big buying opportunity pops up. Being prepared for a buying opportunity can make the process much easier when the time comes. As investors look ahead to the next round of company earnings reports, the focus may gravitate to those companies that have positioned themselves for sustained future growth. Many investors will be closely monitoring which companies outperform by the largest margin after earnings results are released.

Traders may be also be focusing in on the ATR or Average True Range indicator when performing stock analysis. At the time of writing, Predictive Discovery Limited (PDI.AX) has a 14-day ATR of 0.00. The average true range indicator was developed by J. Welles Wilder in order to measure volatility. The ATR may assist traders with figuring out the strength of a breakout or reversal in price. It is important to note that the ATR was not designed to determine price direction or to predict future prices.

Currently, the 14-day ADX for Predictive Discovery Limited (PDI.AX) is sitting at 15.18. Generally speaking, an ADX value from 0-25 would indicate an absent or weak trend. A value of 25-50 would support a strong trend. A value of 50-75 would identify a very strong trend, and a value of 75-100 would lead to an extremely strong trend. ADX is used to gauge trend strength but not trend direction. Traders often add the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI) to identify the direction of a trend.

Checking in on some other technical levels, the 14-day RSI is currently at 46.49, the 7-day stands at 50.41, and the 3-day is sitting at 81.81. Many investors look to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of a particular stock to help identify overbought/oversold conditions. The RSI was developed by J. Welles Wilder in the late 1970’s. Wilder laid out the foundation for future technical analysts to further investigate the RSI and its relationship to underlying price movements. Since its inception, RSI has remained very popular with traders and investors. Other technical analysts have built upon the work of Wilder. The 14-day RSI is still a widely popular choice among technical stock analysts.

Investors may be watching other technical indicators such as the Williams Percent Range or Williams %R. The Williams %R is a momentum indicator that helps measure oversold and overbought levels. This indicator compares the closing price of a stock in relation to the highs and lows over a certain time period. A common look back period is 14 days. Predictive Discovery Limited (PDI.AX)’s Williams %R presently stands at -80.00. The Williams %R oscillates in a range from 0 to -100. A reading between 0 and -20 would indicate an overbought situation. A reading from -80 to -100 would indicate an oversold situation.

Taking a closer look from a technical standpoint, Predictive Discovery Limited (PDI.AX) presently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of -21.14. Typically, the CCI oscillates above and below a zero line. Normal oscillations tend to stay in the range of -100 to +100. A CCI reading of +100 may represent overbought conditions, while readings near -100 may indicate oversold territory. Although the CCI indicator was developed for commodities, it has become a popular tool for equity evaluation as well.

Making the tough buy or sell portfolio decisions is a typical challenge that most investors will eventually face. Trying to separate fact from emotion when making these decisions can be hard. It may be very difficult to part ways with a previously prized stock. Investors may have a checklist that includes certain criteria for portfolio evaluation purposes. When certain stocks no longer meet the guidelines, they may need to be cut loose. This is often easier said than done, especially when a stock has provided a large boost to the portfolio in the past. Investors who are able to successfully keep emotional attachment out of the stock picking process may give themselves a leg up compared to those who are not.    

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